There are some things in life that I find perpetually puzzling. It eludes me why anybody cares in the slightest about any of the Kardashians, for example, and why is bacon packaged in such a way as to make getting to it a major undertaking? There are also some more substantial, or at least relevant, things that puzzle me, such as why natural gas futures occasionally spike to crazy highs then immediately drop back. In all these cases though, I have learned to accept the inexplicable, adjust, and learn what I can. I pay no attention to sites like TMZ so as to avoid Kardashian-related news, always reach for scissors when attempting to open bacon, and look to past action rather than logic to predict moves in natural gas.
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Doing so in this case indicates that we can expect gas futures to drop even further from here before too long, even though logic suggests otherwise.
Let’s look at the logical case for moving higher.
Prices have already fallen over forty percent in a few weeks, but seem to have found a bottom and have been grinding upwards for a few days. To me, that is normally a buy signal as a continued retracement and accelerated move up would, in theory, be most likely from here. That is what happened in February of last year, but that followed a much less dramatic spike than the most recent one. To find more similar patterns we have to go back to the mother of all spikes in 2008, or the jump to over $6 in early 2014.